As a two guard in High School I have a pretty serious bias towards my own position. How can you deny Monta Ellis, Kobe, Pierce or MJ? Nonetheless, I wonder whether the two guard position does not lend itself to...itself. Mj is infinitely more memorable than the Bulls; Kobe has been living this playoffs above the stratosphere, not on the court; Monta Ellis does not play basketball; I don't know what he does, but it's something more like music. Every time I see Monta Ellis play I am reminded of the first time I ever saw the ocean. The forward and power-forward positions are nebulous. It might be the most uninteresting position in professional basketball (e.g. Tim Duncan). All power-forwards are at their best (and most fun to watch) when they are superimposing center-skills on their game (e.g. Amare Stoudamire, KG) or mixing their game with some of the two guard stuff (e.g. Lamar Odom). Centers are essential, but not (generally) directive. Shaq's success, I believe, has been the ability to indirectly (with his overall presence) and directly (with his passing and footwork) direct the defense. I think that he actually did this against the Spurs this postseason. Their problem was, in short, everything else. But, I digress. The point of this is that the game is inextricably tied to the point guard. Which leads me to Rajon Rondo and Derek Fisher.
Rondo: Rondo is a defensive locker-downer. He can shut down guys who are bigger and stronger because of his long arms and he is fit enough to be so active defensively that point guards just get worn down playing against him. He has been very effective at simply frustrating (though only rarely completely shutting down) Mike Bibby, A.C. Law, Delonte West, Booby Gibson, Chauncy Billups and Rodney Stucky. The crucial difference between all of these point guards and Derek Fisher? Derek Fisher does not need to score for his team to win. The triangle offense runs through Kobe, Pau and Odom, leaving Fisher and Rachmonovic (who are scary-effective from behind the arc) to float around and set random, unpredictable pick and rolls and try to shake their man (or force someone else to shake theirs) to open up a three-point attempt. Derek Fisher likes scoring and certainly can be the last-nail-in-the-coffin when the Lakers put a team to rest, but his role in the set offense is not scoring, and he's to experienced to get frustrated by by a bad shooting night (and hell, when you have Kobe Bryant, everyone else needs to just play their game for you to do well).
Fisher: Fisher has in a way the same problem: Iverson, Williams and Parker are all big time (often leading) scorers on their teams. Fisher's job has been to contain them while he is on the court and hope that Farmar can frustrate them enough for them not to rack up 30 points. Rondo is unselfish to a fault, but he also has a few stellar offensive players to dish to. Pierce and KG are so versatile that they will find ways to score wherever they catch the pass. Rondo's game is not as aggressive as Williams' and thereby less predictable. He also plays much better at home (an advantage the Celtics have, which the Lakers have not yet had the disadvantage of in the playoffs). Rondo can get frustrated but he has also hit some very important shots (e.g. a pair of threes at the end of the first half of game 5 against the Cavs and a field goal in the waning minutes of the final game in the conference finals) and can be settled down by KG and Pierce and Allen. Rondo also has perhaps the craziest and un-analyzable lines ever. He will get less than ten points, more than ten assists and upwards of ten rebounds and five steals on any given night. That is truly remarkable and speaks to the fact that his game is modest but pervasive.
In short, it is unconventional how conventional these point guards are. It is important (for what reason I don't know) that these are the starting point guards in the finals instead of Bilups, Parker, West, Williams, Iverson and Bibby. Both of these guys have assets that ultimately can not be articulated (and will therefore never be superstars) but are utterly essential to a successful team.
What does all this mean? I believe that looking to these two guys will help to gauge the success or failure of each team. It is silly, although very tempting, to predict the outcome of the series. The most interesting thing about predictions is why they are being made in the first place which isn't really that interesting until the games have been played. My guess is that the Lakers will win because I think that their offense might (over seven games) be too much for the Celtics to match. But that guess is nothing more than a guess and the most important thing is that (after the games are over) the key to unlocking them will be Rajon Rondo and Derek Fisher.
